Opening Day is finally here, my friends! Actually, the season began last night with the San Diego Padres hosting the Los Angeles Dodgers in a game that was blown by Brian Wilson (you know, the hairy guy who has been struggling for the past couple of years). The Padres scored 3 runs in the bottom of the eighth inning to beat the Dodgers 3-1.
Before the season gets too far underway, I want to address two topics that I've been asked to write about and express my opinion (yes, someone out there is actually reading this blog regularly and wants my expert opinion on a few things!). First is the $292 million contract that Miguel Cabrera signed with the Detroit Tigers through 2023, and second is my predictions for the 2014 season.
As many of you know, I am a big fan of Miguel Cabrera, and seeing him play in Cleveland last summer was a highlight for me. The 2012 Triple Crown winner and 2013 MVP is one of those players that only come around once in a lifetime - that kind of player that you tell your grandkids about and whose baseball cards will be worth a lot of money someday. But Miggy is also getting bigger (now reportedly up to 260 pounds), slower, and more prone to injury (last season he missed several games with back issues). Ten years is a LONG time for anyone to commit to a player, especially one who is already over 30 years old. It makes me think of the long-term contract that Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees a while back - I forget how that one turned out! Then there's Albert Pujols - how did he do last year again? The amount of money the Tigers want to pay Miggy doesn't bother me since baseball players are overpaid anyway; it's the number of years in the contract that I think is excessive. Yes, he can prolong his career as a designated hitter, but 10 more years? Really? A little much, if you ask me.
Now as far as my predictions for this season, this may come as a shock to you, but I don't think I'm going to make any. I know, it's kind of a cop-out, but with 162 games in a season, anything can happen. Yes, I would love to say that the Nationals will win the NL East and the Pirates will reach the playoffs again, but so much can happen between now and September. Look at the Atlanta Braves, who played so well last year and are now starting their season with half of their players on the Disabled List. And how about the Toronto Blue Jays, who were supposed to be the be-all end-all last season - will they fare any batter than last year? And without Mariano Rivera, will the Yankees suck this season? Well they got 4 key players during the offseason - Jacoby Ellsbury, Carlos Beltrán, Brian McCann, and Masahiro Tanaka; but they only look good on paper at this point. I could pull out all sorts of rankings and statistics and SABR-metrics numbers to support my predictions, but all I can do is tell you which team I would LIKE to see in the playoffs - not necessarily the teams that the bettors in Vegas are picking. And really, after seeing our NCAA basketball brackets ruined after the first round of March Madness, can statistics really tell us everything? So here are the teams I like and my un-scientific reasons for liking them.
AL EAST: I'm going to root for the Baltimore Orioles. They were a mess in the off-season and didn't get their act together until early March, when they signed a bunch of last-minute players and made some impromptu trades. Yes, Manny Machado is starting the season on the DL, but we all know that one guy does not a team make, so why not root for the team that played so well during Spring Training?
AL CENTRAL: I want to see the Kansas City Royals play in the postseason. Really, I do. They went 86-76 last year, and if it hadn't been for the 12-game losing streak they had, they would have contended. I'm picking the Royals and I'm not changing my mind. Sorry, Tigers and Indians!
AL WEST: This is one division about which I never really cared. I guess I'll pick the low-budget Oakland A's even though the Mariners now have Robinson Canó and the Angels have hottie Mike Trout. They have great pitchers and very good defensive players, so they should do well.
NL EAST: I don't know if this is jinxing my team, but I'm going to go ahead and pick the Nationals. The Braves annoy me, the Mets are a mess, the Marlins have no one except for José Fernandez, and the Phillies might as well turn their clubhouse into a nursing home. The Nationals have a solid pitching rotation (even with Doug Fister starting the season on the DL), guys who can hit, and a feisty new manager. And we're going to 5 games this season, so they better play well!
NL CENTRAL: How can you not root for the Pittsburgh Pirates? Those of us who are sick of the Cardinals have embraced the Pirates and their never-give-up attitude. Plus they're opening the season against the Cubs at home, so what more of a confidence boost does a team need?
NL WEST: I am determined to not pick the Dodgers (since everyone else is), so I'm going to go with the San Diego Padres. I don't think they will win their division outright, but I believe they can get a wild-card spot and make the playoffs with their decent pitching. Now if they could only get rid of those ugly camo uniforms that they wear on Sundays during home games!
As you can see, my picks are purely based on my shallow opinions and do not carry any statistical weight whatsoever. It took me exactly 20 minutes to come up with my selections - this way if I totally blow it, I won't feel like a total failure who spent way too much time analyzing data.
All I know is that it's finally time to play ball. Time for seventh-inning stretches, racing presidents (and sausages), and injury reports (short ones, hopefully). Enjoy the season, and keep checking in for my thoughts, insights, and of course, my unfiltered opinions. Let's go Nats! :-)
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